By Shahab Jafry – Dubai
Syria is not blessed, or rather cursed with black gold endowment that is irresistible imperial interests, but nevertheless, the late Hafez al Assad raised the such known in the Middle East political calculus that all u.s. President from Nixon to Clinton was forced to indulge in diplomatic business with it. George Bush turned trend of his son and successor Bashar unlikely by openly trumpeting neocon requirement for regime change in Syria, but the latter survived welcome a call for engagement from Obama. In fact, even survival is the biggest achievement for who holds the seat of power in politics of Båth Damascus, and Bashar al-Assad has played his cards well since 2000 bloodless succession.
With the wave of popular protests now trends way into Syria, says Dr Assad, however, the toughest test of his presidency, which has already survived internal and external intrigue including failed palace coup, isrælske maneuvers and pressure from Washington's wahabittiske petro-allies in the Gulf. And as the Western media savage posturing condemn Assad regime to international isolation, it is important to note elements of truth in Assad's warning about the broker an understanding with him "about" that nothing is ever completely black or white in the Middle East policy of zero-sum, heartless game.
True, high youth unemployment and food inflation has connected to shake the power structures ruthlessly running countries like to personal businesses throughout the Arab world. But as the uprising has spread and took an outlook seems to be more relevant for political ideology and sectarian representation, eager young people exploited also increasingly of more sinister elements draws on strings from afar. In such cases, as it is already clear in Egypt, regime change and achieve just rubbishing the old system of precious little for those who forced the spring.
Bashar Assad is tens of thousands of riots across Damascus, Banyas, Daraa and Homs as piece-movements on a high-game of geopolitical chessboard. Just as much, if not more than economics, food prices and statistics now ghosts from the past, as a football match Syrian powder keg. Bashars rise was controversial from the start, the first wave of opposition comes from one of his father's most trusted aides in three decades, Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam. Long number three in the Setup Assad he could not stop the arrangement Succession war as Bashar was installed aged only 34.
Khaddam sought exile in France in ' 05 after Bashar's pullout from Lebanon and began lobbying for the collapse of a system for he had served loyally for more than three decades. He made malicious statements concerning the Syrian participation in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. Even he held Damascus responsible for shock ' 08 out of the House of Hezbollah strongman Immad Mughnieh, trying to drive a wedge in the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah nexus even as the murder clearly bar Mossads fingerprints.
Claims that he has put his weight behind the riots dismantling in Syria cannot be ignored completely. Former Lebanese PM Saad Hariri's wikileaked advice, Assad may be replaced by a Khaddam-Muslim Brotherhood alliance might not fall on deaf ears, even though the two would make very uncomfortable bedfellows despite finding commong ground, because Khaddam shared with his masters. That this apparently conspired as Hariri was on a visit to Damascus to reconcile with the regime he reveals when the blame for his father murder only the hypocritical nature of the Lebanese-Syrian policy. Brotherhood, for its part, has clearly not forgotten stock exchange in the hands of Hafez in the early 1980s, when they took to the streets to spore-regime.
Then there is always the Saudi pressure, now more than ever to deal with Iranian support for the Bahrain's shia. Syrians hold the Saudis "instrumental" in arranging Khaddams desertion as well as his marriage to flags of convenience with the brotherhood. With the ground suddenly very fruitful for dissatisfaction would Syrians not exactly limit of paranoia, if they suspected Saudi petrodollars by helping sow seeds dissonance. There is traditionally a little love loss between Syria's Alawite regime, an offshoot of shia sect, who holds power in Iran and wahabisterne increase the rows of brotherhood and Saudi monarchy. It is also not a coincidence, to wives Hariri, Khaddam and Saudi King Abdullah are sisters.
And, of course, never to miss any movement of Parliament Assad arch enemy in Israel, waiting to pounce on the slightest Show of weakness. This has been rather passive, since Damascus handled the aftermath of the Tel Aviv ' 07 arrogant Show aerial superiority well enough to force it to seek the secret Turkish mediation on the issue of the Golan Heights. Isrælerne remains even cautious with Syria's backing of its nemesis Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as well as Hamas in Gaza.
In view of political intricacies, it is becoming clearer, mobilization of Arab street facing one country after another in a proxy battlefield for both regional and foreign powers. Increasingly have legitimate demands of anger and unemployed Syrian youth gangs mutated into a farcical tug of war between the regional camps.
For their own good to the Syrians to draw the right lessons from Tahrir Square. They have the right in mimic Show of defiance and send a clear signal to the leadership. They should stop from overthrow a structure with no promise of compensation even remote access more sympathetic to their cause. People need to push Assad on genuine complaints he has accepted--unemployment, inflation, political oppression, lack of democracy--and ensure constant pressure in order to advance on these requirements. Unnecessary persistence, especially if it hides the Government, not benefit people only outside forces bent on personal and political gain.
Damascus has played a central role in the maintenance (and changing) regional equilibrium. Once again it says it at the center of a regional paradigm shift where the waves of anger can overcome the voice advocating constant nerves and overthrow the broader region into chaos. More than petro sheikh judgment financed guerrilla cum political movements and superpower buffer States, heavy lies in the head that wears Crown in Damascus.
-Jafry Shahab is a freelance journalist based in Dubai. He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com. Contact him at: jafry.shahab@gmail.com.
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