At the edge of Yemen

21 March 2011, the Virginia Hill, Chatham House, 11: 11- YOU last updated by the Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to celebrate his 66th birthday on Monday, the powerful military that encountered by the competitor is in the name of a popular revolution-Yemen is his family from power submitted a tender are referred to the reality.

Tanks in the Commission's eldest son, Ahmed Saleh, the authority of parked at the gates of the palace is located in the capital Sanaa. Tanks for the transport of dangerous goods is also of the armed forces of the Ministry of defence, as well as outside of the Central Bank.

These defensive deployments, in order to protect the Commission's control follow that Saleh military commander, Gen Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar is taking aid to Yemen, the pro-democracy Klimaflüchtlinge notification.

The General Defection follows a similar development in the growing number of Ministers, Committee of ambassadors, parliamentarians and prominent business men during the last few days.

The rapid pace of Defections by Friday, when the snipers opened fire on pro-democracy camp, killing more than 50 people in the capital.

US officials condemned Friday's violence, "the strongest terms" and expressed hope that Yemeni may yet achieve the negotiations and dialogue on a political solution.

Patti

The US authorities with a view to the completion of the negotiations and in the same line of dialogue from the Yemen, the pro-democracy movement began to gain momentum in January.

The Commission has adeptly played Saleh fear chaos if he loses control of Yemen

However, the confidence required to achieve a political solution has been absent, and the Yemeni Opposition politicians is that they had to in order to obtain the power-sharing Deal.

As a result of this stalemate situation, the conclusion, even though the young Yemenis-blank with the entire generation of politicians were becoming more and more errors to street numbers.

The US authorities, in the light of the recent attempts to encourage both the dialogue is based on the dynamics of real political interpretation of fundamental rights in Yemen.

Although concentrating attention to diplomats are set out in the political parties, official agencies and the State of complex networks of patronage and corruption, which are closely entwined with that of the Commission's system of monetary situation gradually Saleh has been moving in the open view.

Continue to be added to the main story 40% of the poorest countries, the Yemenis who live less than $ 2 (£ 1.25) for the Middle East, at least two-thirds of the population of the dayMore is less than 24, more than a third in jobless; illiteracy rate is more than 50% of the Dwindling oil reserves and the falling oil revenue; a little water in the internal investmentAcute shortageWeak Central governmentWith Gen Ali Herring's Defection, the long-standing competition vis-à-vis the various parties within the system, finally been exposed.

Now Yemenis are waiting to see what happens next, and Twitter is buzzing with speculation. Many Yemenis expressing love or stunned disbelief, that the Commission may be removed from Office after Saleh, more than 30 years at the prospect of power. Others are warning of the massacre or the civil war.

The Pro-Democracy Klimaflüchtlinge are nervous, according to settled case-law of the military and commercial interests, who simply appoint a new face to govern the country without making significant changes to the status quo from a popular revolution.

Tipping point

In this scenario, the Gen Ali herring is likely to work when the opposition politician and kingmaker, Hameed al-Ahmar could emerge as one of the beneficiaries.

US officials now have to be made swiftly using the recalculation of their short-term and long-term interests of Yemen.

By this time, however, is to be taken, the Commission's approach-one that Saleh appeared to step out of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak delivered much stronger messages and Muammar al-Gaddafi, Libya which were both reported that the game was up to the popular unrest in their countries to achieve the critical tipping point during the day.

Affect us policy makers as is their assessment that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, which is based on the global terror organization to be classified by the most active branches.

For many years the US authorities not to provide military support and the training of the elite security and intelligence services of the Commission on the activities of the unit, the son of Saleh and grandchildren command. The White House is nervous about losing these relationships with the local proxy servers, which have been ready to cooperate with the counter-terrorism activities of the United States.

However, the longer the US officials try to keep the Commission Saleh and his family at the place, the more their risks, their own interests. Yemenis are furious that the United States backed the Commission's Central security forces, one of the grandchildren commanded units played Saleh article on pro-democracy protests in cracking a prominent role.

In the United States made the gas canisters of CS, allegedly intended for counter-terrorism activities, also used in the pro-democracy against Klimaflüchtlinge.

For several years the Commission has adeptly play Saleh, fear chaos if he loses control of Yemen but his internal support ebbing away quickly.

Ginny Hill is carried out in Yemen in the Chatham House, the independent forum of International Affairs think tank.

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