It should come as no surprise that reigning Egyptian Supreme Military Council announced its intention to honour all Egypt's regional and international treaties after it took over the reins of power from President Hosni Mubarak last week. This announcement was made mainly assure the United States and Israel, to the new position, Mubarak political order in Cairo remains formally committed to its peace agreement with Israel.
More than any other Government branch Egyptian military owes its modern weapons, training, logistics and equipment to the u.s., military aid, which came as a direct dividend peace treaty it signed with Israel in 1979.
In other words, pay us both Israel and Egypt for peace sponsored it between the two countries in 1979. The US payment to Egypt come in the form of $ 1.3 billion military aid package and only about $ 250 billion in financial support.
Isræls payment is worth over $ 3 billion dollars.
A State Department cable in 2009 leaked by Wikileaks last year on u.s.-Egyptian relationship documented a meeting between a general United States and Egyptian military leaders. Relationship cable sumarized: "President [Hosni] Mubarak and military leaders view our military assistance program as the cornerstone of our mil-mil conditions and consider the $ 1.3 billion in annual foreign military financing as untouchable compensation in order to make and maintain peace with Israel."
In another State Department memo marked "secret" the Egyptian military seen the "the tangible benefits our mil-mil the relationship is clear," says: "Egypt remain in peace with Israel and the u.s. military to enjoy priority access to the Suez Canal and Egyptian sky."
U.S. military relations with Egypt pays not only on the new military weapons for the Egyptian army. U.s. military aid to Egypt, pays in addition, mainly for upgrades of existing weapons, training Egyptian military and regular maintenance and spare parts.
This military relationship provides in exchange U.S. Government leverage over Egypt, which the new Egyptian leaders realize as a wholesale services fact. Without the American military support to the Egyptian military, given the size of American-made weapons they have, degrade and falling behind its potential enemies in the region.
In the last days of scheme Mubarak spoke some American Congressional leaders on cutting U.S. military aid to Egypt, where its new leaders moved away from the United States's national interests. This was the first and clear initial warning to United States might trim its logistical or training aid to Egyptian military as in this case, will degrade the Egyptian military in the long term and thus weaken Egypt's strategic value in the region.
U.S. strategic planners calculate that the Egyptian military is unlikely to move away from its alliance with the United States due to its total dependency United States funding to preserve and maintain its American-made weapons. The reasoning behind this way of thinking is the situation in both Iran and the United States found itself in accordance with the Shah of Iran in 1979.
The Shah of Iran had acquired enormous quantities of advanced U.S. arms, was maintained by American made and exercises. spare parts. After the Islamic revolution in 1979, American advanced weapons were in the position of a hostile State, but the United States ended its military support programs to Iran, a decision that ultimately caused the U.S. weapons to rust out of service.
A clear example of this is the United States made F-14 Tomcat fighter aircraft, which was in service in Iran before the 1979 revolution. The Iranian air force has to this day yet to recover from the impact of its dependence on U.S. contracts for servicing and maintenance arms purchased during the Shah era.
A similar situation could occur for the American-made Egyptian F-16s or its Navy frigates or tanks and armoured vehicles. If the future leaders of Egypt decided to close their strategic alliance with us, or complete their treaty with Israel, may then retaliate by American ends its military assistance programs and deprive Egypt's military crucial upgrades and service contracts.
Such a situation, would seriously damage the front line of the Egyptian air force, F-16s that without American spare parts and regular maintenance, will end up crumbling and obsolete and will meet the same fate as the Iranian F14. In the scenario unlikely Egypt will fall further behind Israel in its military capabilities; even if it is possible to compensate his loss with less advanced Russian and Chinese weapons systems.
For the future leaders of Egypt is U.S. military aid to Egypt a two-edged sword. On the one hand, the modern Egyptian military is almost a U.S. establishment of training, weapons, equipment and maintenance and support of the United States needs to maintain those advanced weapons systems, in particular, the Soviet era weapons systems is on the way out. On the other hand, American military aid package keep Egypt a United States dependency, and within the United States territory influence outdent the United States's strategic interests in the region. Egypt can in this case not chart an independent course in the Arab world much less lead it, and nor can match the much stronger isrælske army.
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