Saturday, September 24, 2011

United States and Bahrain: how to talk just hard enough with an ally (Time.com)

Tuesday-met just seven days after his country lifted 13 weeks of emergency-Bahrain's Crown Prince, Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, separately with President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington. White House statement said President supported al-Khalifa "ongoing efforts to initiate a national dialogue" and that "Bahrain stability depends on the universal rights of the people of Bahrain, including the right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly."


Come after Obama lashed in Bahrain violent punishment on peaceful demonstrators in a speech on May 19, his support was a public change of course, that appear to repair ties with a key Middle East ally. It also appeared to signal that America will stop his public criticism of Bahrain Government itself as it invites the Sunni-dominated regime to initiate talks with opposition leaders. (See photos of the demonstrators sent from Pearl Square).


Meetings are "a shift in tone and indicate a softening of the U.S. approach to Bahrain," said Shadi Hamid, Research Director of the Brookings Doha Center, "and show that the United States is not only seriously putting real constant pressure on the regime right now. The impact of Tuesday's visit has been to put a band aid on the tensions between the two countries and is, Hamid says, "green light" to the Bahrain Government to go about his business without criticism or interference by the United States. Business includes both the reopening of the country to international trade, fear of unrest in the spring, and the closing stages of a months long violent punishment on the demonstrators, who this week as security forces repeatedly attack Shi'a enclaves with rubber bullets and tear gas.


Since March 13 when Saudi tanks rolled in Manama and security forces began arresting any connection with anti-Government movements-including journalists and health workers-the US Government has faced a conundrum. How snub Obama an ally, which houses the Navy's fifth fleet in a geopolitical arena, which includes its regional nemesis, Iran? (See photos of penalty in Bahrain).


"Bahrain has always been ground zero America's inability to reconcile interests and ideals in Arab spring," said Hamid. "It is difficult for Management to handle and they really have not found a way yet. Obama has also come under fire from international rights groups and Bahrain's Shi'as, which has repeatedly said his and Clinton's sporadic criticism was just lip service and that both should have taken a public stance against the tougher regime's violent tactics.


The White House said Tuesday that al Khalifa urged Obama to follow up on "the Government's obligation to ensure that those responsible for violations of human rights will be held responsible," a marked shift in tone from May 19, when he lambasted the regime's destruction of more than 30 Shi'a mosques.


"We have called on the Obama administration to highlight strongly and publicly and in no uncertain terms about the violations of human rights that occurred," says His Hogrefe, Chief policy officer at Physicians for human rights, which this week refers to the conviction of 48 doctors and nurses if ministering to wounded demonstrators led to their prosecution for participating in the protests. "We hope that there would have been a more public discourse-it is important for the region to see that we measure human rights with the same standards everywhere, that we are not just condemning Syria, Libya constantly but let our friends from easy." (See if Obama speech help Bahrain reformists).


The u.s. Government the goal this week was to stress the need for immediate talks on the reform between the Bahrain Government and opposition officials. Although the Crown Prince said he would be open to meeting with Shi'a leaders, repeating Obama, in his speech may activists frustration that it was impossible to open negotiations, when most of the opposition leadership was in jail. "What is driving this visit to D.C., is that [Obama and Clinton] tries to tell Shi'a actually negotiate. And tell the Royal family to negotiate, "said Thomas Ferguson, senior researcher at the Roosevelt Institute. "The phrase was blunt." Obama solidarity is crucial for the relatively moderate Crown Prince, whose influence in Bahrain has fallen as he fights the growing number of harsh extremists within its own Government.


Is U.s. relationship not only with Bahrain but Saudi Arabia, if soldiers allied with the Bahrain security officers in quelling ønations revolution in March on the games moving forward. Many see the conflict in Bahrain as a proxy war between the Saudis and Iran, with the latter seeks to seize on any perceived weakness in the relationship between oil-rich Saudi and America. (See how Bahrain sits between Saudi Arabia and Iran).


"The United States has a fundamental interest in keeping its relations with the Saudis on an angle and Bahrain is its biggest problem," said Joost Hiltermann, Middle East, Deputy Director of the International Crisis Group. Obama "that Iran will take advantage of instability in the region. The current situation of the Iranian interests, feeding because the more you suppress the Shi'a, the more they radicalize and seek external sponsors. So it is important for the United States to put pressure on the regime to open up political space and to permit the participation of all its people. " This week, "they insist on the need for dialogue without preconditions as an inclusive exercise that leads to genuine political reform."


"Rights groups can say it is not doing enough to publicly criticise its close ally" Hiltermann continues. "But the Government believes that private conversations are more useful in this situation than public scorn." Before Clinton meeting Tuesday, State Department spokesman Mark Toner alluded to the possibility of criticism-and repeated the Government's months-long position on its public treatment of its island ally. "We will, of course, increase our concerns," he told journalists. "Bahrain is a friend and partner, but we can be honest with you, as well as". Although opposition leaders has long shake stronger public rebukes from the Americans, most now side with Sheikh Ali Salman, head of the official opposition party al Wefaq, which said last month that the Group was ready for negotiations. After months of violence, it is likely the country's Shi'a majority not fault U.S. leaders to keep their discussions with the largely private-as long as the promises of the conversations are kept, Crown Prince and tear gas to stop counting on Manama.


 

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